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Soundtrack: famous broadcast by
Gordon Sinclair "The Americans" June 5, 1973
'Like Genghis Khan, he no longer leads from the
front but issues orders that each cell fulfils'
By Christopher Bellamy, London Independent
24 September 2001
The scale and audacity of the attacks on New York and Washington
on 11 September and the military response which will surely follow
will ensure Osama bin Laden's place in the history books if, as
appears likely, he was the mastermind. He will join the ranks of
history's most infamous men, a notorious politico-military-religious
leader who changed the world. For he is a figure almost without
precedent, and very much a man of his time. A terrorist tactician of
unique genius, he must remain the central target.
Some have warned that a heavy military response to the attacks on
America will create "thousands of bin Ladens". Thousands of
terrorists, maybe. But the kind of malevolent brilliance required to
conceive and orchestrate an operation of the magnitude and ingenuity
we saw two weeks ago is rare indeed. The cocktail of genes, nurture,
expertise, alienation and opportunity that creates a charismatic but
malevolent leader like that occurs once a century, if that.
In spite of his medieval appearance, Osama bin Laden is a
thoroughly modern, phenomenon. Although immensely complex to plan,
his attacks were successful because of their simplicity in
execution. The attackers turned the achievements of the West's
technology and culture easy air travel, jet aeroplanes, tall
buildings against itself.
Mr bin Laden has a degree in civil engineering which would have
come in useful planning the attack and also understands the
working of the computers, financial institutions and, above all, the
media. Just look at how the second plane hit the World Trade Centre
about 20 minutes after the first, when the planners knew that the
cameras would be rolling on the first tower, engulfed in flames.
He also has considerable business acumen. The Saudis froze his
bank accounts and confiscated his share of the family fortune when
they revoked his citizenship in 1994, but he has found other ways of
replenishing his coffers. He may get a share of the profits from
opium, of which Afghanistan is the world's principal supplier. After
he established himself in Sudan, he founded several companies
including the Al Shamal Islamic bank and agricultural and
construction enterprises. He and his associates use business fronts
to transfer money secretly by wire and computer, in spite of the
international scrutiny of intelligence agencies. Those who have
tracked his career now fear he may launch a devastating cyber-war
attack on computer networks the warfare of the future.
The attacks on New York and Washington fulfiled all the
predictions made by security experts in recent years. They were
"anti-ιlite action" by groups bitter and resentful at US global
hegemony, wealth, and cultural dominance. A "non-state actor"
Osama bin Laden probably orchestrated them from has hideaway in
Afghanistan through a loose network of terrorist cells. The scale of
the attacks made them equivalent to attack by a weapon of mass
destruction nuclear, biological or chemical. We have long dreaded
"super-terrorism", using such weapons, but 160tons of airliner
filled with fuel, and precision guided by kamikaze pilots, has a
similar effect. The attacks on the twin towers released an amount of
energy equivalent to a small nuclear weapon. Not for nothing was the
site of the collapsed towers named "ground zero".
But Mr bin Laden's genius has not only created terrorist attacks
of unprecedented scale, but introduced a new element synergy. Most
terrorist attacks are isolated incidents. With his attacks on the US
embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in August 1998 and the attacks of
two weeks ago, he has shown a military genius's instinct for
exploiting the disproportionate effect of attacks on several targets
at once, confusing the defenders and paralysing their response.
As an innovator and practitioner of asymmetric warfare, Mr bin
Laden follows in the tradition of Mao Zedong. Mao traded space for
time, and in facing a conventional army looked also to the
intangible element of will. Mr bin Laden is unencumbered by the
territory of a state, but certainly takes his time. The attacks on
the US embassies may have taken five years to plan and those on the
US mainland, 10.
Mr bin Laden's tactics resemble those of Mao's "war of the flea",
although his "fleas" are fearsome. The dog under attack always
reacts to the flea-bites, but in lifting his leg to scratch, exposes
a part even more vulnerable. In spite of the millions of deaths for
which he was responsible, Mao is regarded by many as a great man.
The only malevolent genius of recent history to be (almost)
universally condemned was a failed artist from Austria, Adolf
Hitler. Mr bin Laden's hatred of the US could be likened to Hitler's
obsession with the Jews. Like Mr bin Laden, Hitler managed to charm
many people into helping him. Using and exploiting the talents of
German science and engineering, Hitler had some extraordinary
weapons at his disposal. Mr bin Laden's exploitation of the
commercially available 21st-century technology is not dissimilar.
In the stupendous scale of his operations and his command style,
known as "mission command", Mr bin Laden also resembles one other
figure from history: Genghis Khan. This Mongol warlord (c.
AD1155-1227) built up a network of allies after his father was
murdered when he was a boy. By 1206, through skillful negotiation,
he had united all the tribes of Mongolia under his rule. He then
conquered most of the rest of the known world.
Genghis Khan was a great delegator, aided by superb generals such
as Subedei and Jebe, whom he would instruct to conquer a given
country. He would meet with his generals occasionally, their
movements coordinated by strict timing.
Osama bin Laden, like so many modern terrorists, operates in a
similar way. His al-Qa'ida network is believed to have cells in 34
countries. The cells enjoy some autonomy and orders are issued on a
strict "need to know" basis. This makes penetration by outside
agencies almost impossible.
Like Genghis, Mr bin Laden no longer leads from the front, but
issues orders that each cell fulfils, building into a grand design
that is only understood by the supreme commander. That is,
paradoxically, some cause for comfort. If Mr bin Laden is, as he
appears to be, a malevolent tactical genius as well as a truly
charismatic leader directing cells unaware of each other's
activities from afar, his network is likely to be destroyed by his
removal.
The writer is professor of Military Science and Doctrine at
Cranfield University and is associate editor of the 'Oxford
Companion to Military History'
